More than 59% of respondents to Trepp’s 2022 CRE Sentiment Survey expect a recession by the end of 2023. Only about 9% expect the U.S. will avoid a slowdown in the near term.
The survey was conducted from July 13 through Aug. 1. Trepp, which provides data and research to the commercial real estate sector, had responses from that industry and other capital market participants.
Nearly 83% anticipated delinquencies on commercial real estate and commercial mortgage-backed securities to increase over the next six months, reversing a trend of falling late payments over the past couple of years. Only about 7% predicted an improvement.
A large majority, 70%, expected the office sector to have the largest increase in distress for the rest of 2022 compared with other property types. This figure dwarfed the roughly 13% who think retail properties will lead the way.
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