Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt – which is usually involved in bankruptcies – is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Renault SA (EPA:RNO) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Renault
As you can see below, Renault had €59.6b of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have €20.0b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €39.6b.
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Renault had liabilities of €67.5b due within 12 months and liabilities of €15.5b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €20.0b and €1.60b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €61.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the €8.34b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Renault would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Renault's net debt to EBITDA ratio is 8.4 which suggests rather high debt levels, but its interest cover of 7.4 times suggests the debt is easily serviced. Overall we'd say it seems likely the company is carrying a fairly heavy swag of debt. Importantly, Renault grew its EBIT by 72% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Renault's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent two years, Renault recorded free cash flow worth 74% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
We feel some trepidation about Renault's difficulty level of total liabilities, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its EBIT growth rate and conversion of EBIT to free cash flow were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Renault is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Renault you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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Renault SA designs, manufactures, sells, and distributes vehicles in France and internationally.
Undervalued with reasonable growth potential.
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