Construction workers work on new homes in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, last spring. Cities across the nation are experiencing an affordable housing crisis and Spokane lawmakers have recently taken steps to lower rents by increasing the available supply of units.
Staff Reporter
Construction workers work on new homes in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, last spring. Cities across the nation are experiencing an affordable housing crisis and Spokane lawmakers have recently taken steps to lower rents by increasing the available supply of units.
(The Center Square) – Pennsylvania’s population continues to shift to the southeastern corner of the state, and the wealth is going with it.
A new report from the Independent Fiscal Office shows the pattern in the commonwealth in recent years. From 2017 to 2020, Pennsylvania’s population shrank by .03% annually. Cumberland County, across the Susquehanna River from Harrisburg, grew the most during that time: 0.87% annually. Cameron County in the north lost the most: 2.07% annually.
The population declines were concentrated in the state’s Appalachian counties that comprise most of the land mass; only six of the 52 Appalachian counties saw population growth, while every non-Appalachian county except Philadelphia County grew in population.
“Population declines in the northern, central and southwestern regions offset gains in south central and southeastern regions,” the IFO report noted.
While the commonwealth has some bright spots in the suburban areas of Philadelphia, Allentown, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania keeps losing people, as The Center Square previously reported.
Personal income growth, however, is more evenly distributed across the commonwealth. When the IFO adjusted personal income to population changes, the most gains in per capita average income growth went beyond the biggest cities.
The state average for income growth per capita was 2.7% annually from 2017 to 2020. “The top three counties were Clinton (4.0%), Wyoming (3.9%) and Venango (3.5%),” the report noted. “The bottom three counties were Washington (1.3%), McKean (1.1%) and Elk (1.0%).”
Income growth at the county level can get complicated.
“There is a lot going on,” IFO Director Matthew Knittel said.
Rural and older counties may show above-average growth thanks to Social Security income or Medicare and Medicaid spending, he noted. The growth for other counties may instead be driven by economic dynamism.
Out-migration may also help. When some counties lose population, they may see income growth because residents who leave were earning less than the average salary.
However, the income measurement underrates wealth differences. While the personal income measurement that the IFO used covers Social Security income and pension contributions, it does not include capital gains income, which generally go to the well-off.
“Because cap gains are excluded, it does understate income, especially for wealthier counties. For the entire state, if cap gains were included, per capita income would increase by $1,880 for 2019,” Knittel said.
While a place like Adams County would see its per capita income go up by $1,160, the gains are much bigger near Philadelphia. Chester County would increase by $4,540 per capita and Montgomery County would increase by $5,680.
Pandemic relief programs also made a significant difference. Without pandemic-related funds coming into the commonwealth, the IFO estimated “the statewide per capita level would be 7.2% (roughly $4,000 per resident) lower.”
Staff Reporter
Anthony Hennen is a reporter for The Center Square. Previously, he worked for Philadelphia Weekly and the James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal. He is managing editor of Expatalachians, a journalism project focused on the Appalachian region.
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