In normal times, home sales usually slowed down as summer turned to fall.
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Editor’s Note: This story originally appeared on Construction Coverage.
The housing market of the last two years has been unusual in many ways.
With constrained supply, intense demand, and record price growth, the market has consistently defied experts’ expectations and typical trends. And one way these aberrations have shown up is in seasonality.
Typically, the most active portion of the year is spring and summer. For most years in the last decade, monthly home sales peaked in the months of June, July, or August and receded over the course of the rest of the year. With more buyers looking for homes in peak months, competition also helps drive prices higher, and homes typically sell for more when the market is at its most active. But since 2020, seasonality in the market has been disrupted.
While price growth throughout the seasons has been more dramatic than usual over the last two years, home values remained flat or continued growing even in off months where prices typically decline. And more recently, high prices and interest rates have begun to cool the market, which has been unusual in a different way: median home sales prices declined slightly between May and June 2022, which has not occurred in any year in the last decade.
To determine the locations with the biggest seasonal changes in home prices, researchers at Construction Coverage calculated the percentage change in median sale price between the most expensive month and the least expensive month in each location, averaged over the five-year period between 2015 and 2019. In the event of a tie, the location with the greater percentage change in days on market was ranked higher. The data used in this analysis is from Redfin.
Here are the U.S. metropolitan areas with the biggest seasonal change in home prices.
The data used in this analysis is from Redfin’s Data Center. To determine the locations with the biggest seasonal changes in home prices, researchers at Construction Coverage calculated the median home sale price seasonal change by taking a weighted average of the differences between the highest median home sale month and the lowest median home sale month, from 2015 through 2019.
Locations with the larger seasonal changes were ranked higher, and in the event of a tie, the location with the greater total days on market seasonal change (2015-2019 average) was ranked higher. To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 residents were included, and those with insufficient home sales data were omitted from the analysis.
Disclosure: The information you read here is always objective. However, we sometimes receive compensation when you click links within our stories.
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